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Latvian Prime Minister Andris Kulbergs’s United List is leading in the October 3, 2026 parliamentary elections and appears set to win the largest share of the vote, according to projections and exit polls cited by the media. The result strengthens Kulbergs’s prospects, but does not confirm either his continued leadership of the government or the makeup of the next majority.

Available estimates put the United List’s result between 35.4% and 35.6% of the vote. The difference reflects data reported at different times or based on different references and does not allow a single definitive percentage to be established.

The South China Morning Post attributes the 35.6% figure to an exit poll released by Latvia’s public broadcaster LTV. The same report says the party is on course to win the largest share of the vote and identifies coalition talks to form a government as the next step.

According to POLITICO Europe, Kulbergs’s party finished more than 20 percentage points ahead of Latvia First. The result, together with its lead in the projections, strengthened the possibility of a coalition supportive of Ukraine, without determining the outcome of the negotiations.

The election campaign focused primarily on security and defense, as well as the rising cost of living. These issues shaped the vote in a country where economic and security concerns played a significant role in the political debate.

ANSA reported that Latvia is expected to maintain a stance supportive of Ukraine and oriented toward the European Union. This is an assessment of the political outlook following the vote, not confirmation that a government has already been formed.

The available sources therefore describe a projected or apparent success, not a certified final result. Both the United List’s definitive percentage and the agreement between the parties needed to form the next government remain to be clarified; it has also not been confirmed that Kulbergs will remain prime minister.